CAPM Calculator

What Return Does a Stock's Risk Actually Justify?

The Capital Asset Pricing Model answers a specific question: given how much systematic risk a stock carries relative to the market, what return should an investor demand to hold it? It's the theoretical backbone behind beta as a risk measure, connecting the risk-free rate, the stock's beta, and the broader market's expected return into a single expected-return figure that analysts use as a benchmark for whether an investment is fairly priced.

The Formula

Expected Return = Risk-Free Rate + Beta × (Market Return − Risk-Free Rate)

The term (Market Return − Risk-Free Rate) is the equity risk premium — the extra return the market as a whole is expected to deliver over a risk-free asset. Multiplying it by beta scales that premium up or down based on the individual stock's sensitivity to market moves.

Where This Matters

  • Setting a discount rate — CAPM's output is a standard input to the cost of equity used in discounted cash flow valuation and WACC calculations.
  • Judging whether a stock is fairly valued — comparing a stock's actual historical return to its CAPM-predicted return is one basic way analysts flag potential mispricing (this is, in fact, the same comparison that produces alpha).
  • Portfolio construction — CAPM gives a theoretical basis for expecting higher-beta stocks to command higher average returns over time, informing how much risk to take on for a given return target.

Worked Example

Risk-free rate 3%, beta 1.2, expected market return 9%
StepValue
Equity risk premium (Market − Risk-Free)6.0%
Beta × Equity risk premium7.2%
Expected return10.2%

3% + 1.2 × 6% = 10.2%. A beta of 1.2 means the stock is expected to earn 1.2 times the market's risk premium above the risk-free rate.

How to Use This Calculator

  1. Enter the risk-free rate (commonly a Treasury yield matching your time horizon).
  2. Enter the stock or portfolio's beta.
  3. Enter the expected market return.
  4. Select Calculate to get the CAPM expected return and the underlying equity risk premium.

Related Calculations

Feed this expected return into the WACC Calculator for a full cost-of-capital figure, or compare it against actual performance with the Portfolio Alpha Calculator.