Blackjack Insurance EV Calculator
Reviewed by Hamza Gujjar, Algorithm Architect & Software Developer
Last updated: July 27, 2026Why insurance is usually a losing bet
Insurance pays 2:1 and only wins when the dealer has a ten-value card face down - with a standard full shoe, ten-value cards make up just under a third of the deck, making insurance a negative expected value bet for the player in typical conditions.
Worked example
For a $10 insurance bet with a standard 6-deck shoe (96 ten-value cards remaining out of 312 total):
P(dealer blackjack) = 96/312 = 30.77%
EV = -0.77 expected value (Negative EV - standard unfavorable insurance bet)
Insurance only becomes a positive expected value bet when the remaining deck is unusually rich in ten-value cards relative to this standard baseline ratio - identifying exactly this situation is precisely what card counting techniques are designed to detect.