Expected Value Dice Game Calculator
Reviewed by Hamza Gujjar, Algorithm Architect & Software Developer
Last updated: July 27, 2026The long-run average that reveals whether a risk is worth taking
Expected value represents the long-run average payout of a decision if it were repeated many, many times - the standard tool for evaluating whether a risky game mechanic (like a push-your-luck dice decision) is mathematically favorable on average.
Worked example
For outcomes of 0, 10, and 20 points with probabilities 50%, 30%, and 20% respectively:
EV = (0 x 0.5) + (10 x 0.3) + (20 x 0.2) = 7.0
An expected value of 7.0 doesn't mean any single attempt will score exactly 7 - it means that repeating this exact decision many times would average out to 7 points per attempt, which is the correct way to judge whether taking the risk is generally favorable compared to a guaranteed alternative.