Baccarat Odds Calculator
Banker Wins More Often, Which Is Why It's Taxed
Baccarat's three possible bets — Banker, Player, and Tie — don't carry equal underlying win probabilities, even though the game's drawing rules are fixed and identical for every hand. Banker wins more hands than Player over a full shoe, which is the mathematical reason casinos charge a commission on winning Banker bets rather than paying it straight at even money.
The Formula
EV (per unit bet) = (P(win) × Payout) − (P(lose) × 1)
House Edge = −EV × 100
House Edge = −EV × 100
Using standard published outcome probabilities for an 8-deck shoe: P(Banker win) = 45.86%, P(Player win) = 44.62%, P(Tie) = 9.52%.
House Edge by Bet Type
| Bet | Win probability | Standard payout | House edge (this formula) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 45.86% | 0.95:1 (1:1 minus 5% commission) | 10.57% |
| Player | 44.62% | 1:1 | 10.76% |
| Tie | 9.52% | 8:1 | 14.32% |
Note: this calculator's EV model treats every non-win as a full loss of the wager. In most casinos' actual house rules, a Tie result pushes (returns) an unresolved Banker or Player bet rather than losing it — which is why widely published baccarat house-edge figures for Banker (commonly cited around 1.06%) and Player (around 1.24%) are lower than the figures above. The Tie bet itself resolves on every hand either way, so its edge is unaffected by the push rule.
Where This Gets Used
- Comparing bet types under a consistent formula — seeing exactly how win probability and payout combine, before layering in house-specific push rules.
- Understanding commission structures — seeing why Banker carries a lower commission-adjusted payout than Player despite winning more often.
- Evaluating non-standard payout tables — some tables offer different Tie payouts (9:1 instead of 8:1, for example); entering the actual payout recalculates the exact figure for that table.
How to Use This Calculator
- Choose Bet Type — Banker, Player, or Tie.
- Optionally enter a custom Payout (leave blank to use the standard payout for that bet).
- Select Calculate to see the calculated house edge.
Related Calculations
Compare against roulette's fixed house edge with the Roulette Odds Calculator, or compute any custom wager's edge with the House Edge Calculator.